Ultimate pro football betting guide

In proper Ryan-like fashion, the Bills also led the NFL in penalties last year. Note that this offense actually led the league last year in three-and-outs at 28 percent.

Vital when handicapping over/under season wins is the schedule, and the Packers’ slate is relatively smooth sailing. And finally, their road schedule is void of high-caliber competition in Jacksonville, Atlanta, Tennessee, Washington, Philadelphia and their division rivals. The Jets were 10-6 last year and had the No. The FPI at 9.3 and MLE at 9.4 slightly agree, though it is a little concerning that they’re only clear underdogs in just four games (how they fare in the four pick ‘em games will tell the tale). The better play now is Cincinnati at 20-1, as the Bengals have one of the best all-around teams with a balanced offense and a solid bend-but-don’t-break defense.

AFC betting previews | NFC | Super Bowl bets

New York Jets over 8 ( 150) . I still like them, but the “value” part isn’t quite there anymore at 14-1. Well, the oddsmakers obviously felt all along that he would return to the fold as the odds didn’t budge. However, we’ve clearly seen the high end of this Packers team over the previous two seasons as an offensive machine and a capable defense. The Cardinals are poised and motivated for the NFL title.

Kansas City Chiefs under 9.5 ( 120)

Green Bay Packers over 10.5 (-170)

Cincinnati Bengals over 9.5 (EVEN)

Opening week last year, the Ravens lost defensive force and team leader? Terrell Suggs — and quite simply, it was all downhill from there. Note that with the top AFC teams expected down compared to the Cardinals, Packers, Panthers and Seahawks, the key is to bet the Ravens to win their conference.

Tuley

Again, we don’t need the Bengals to erase their playoff demons to cash this bet. ESPN Chalk’s NFL Vegas experts, Dave Tuley and Erin Rynning, combine to bring you the ultimate betting guide for 2016. The W/L/T that we used in our betting previews for each team and used CG Technology’s Week 1-16 lines to see how many times a team is expected to be favored has the Giants favored in only 8 games, so they would almost have to win all of those (plus any upsets) to get over 8.5.

New Orleans Saints under 7 (-140)

Arizona Cardinals (8-1)

It’s not often you get 25-1 on the defending champions. They don’t need to win them all to get over the total and, even if they don’t win them all, I give them a decent shot to win some of the rare games where they’ll be underdogs or pick ‘em.

Dallas Cowboys (25-1)

Cincinnati Bengals (20-1)

The season is finally upon us. They’ve fortified their defensive line with the additions of Chandler Jones and top draft choice Robert Nkemdiche to aid in the all-important NFL pressuring of the quarterback. However, this team peaked early, and eventually the preseason loss of wide receiver Jordy Nelson reared its ugly head along with subpar offensive line play. However, it’s easy to flush last season down the drain and move forward with this rock-solid organization.

I had a lean on the Jets under 8 back in April, but that was when Ryan Fitzpatrick was holding out, and I expected the number to go higher if he signed. 4 defense with Fitzpatrick leading an already-balanced offense that adds running back Matt Forte. If Prescott can keep Dallas in contention and Romo returns healthy, the 25-1 price could be an overlay — as long as Romo can stay healthy the rest of the way, which is asking a lot.

If I like the Falcons to go to the playoffs (and especially to make a Super Bowl run), then I must love the over 7 at -130. They just need to keep doing what they’re doing in the regular season, and I don’t see too much of a falloff from the team that finished 12-4 a year ago. Before last season, Harbaugh owned a 72-38 regular-season NFL record as head coach, plus 10-5 in the postseason. And while defenses can still win championships, like we saw last year with Denver, it’s not a necessity in today’s NFL.

Under the leadership of John Harbaugh and Ozzie Newsome, the Ravens have been a threat every season to reach the Super Bowl. Obviously we can’t have the Chiefs going on another 10-game winning streak, but that was a bit of a fluke, and no one’s going to be looking past them this year.

Rynning

After the schedules came out in April, I made the Saints’ under 6.5 ( 115) one of my best bets, so I like under 7 even better, though the juice is heavy at -140. But the talent is there to take a flier.

Other potential future-book plays

Yes, there’s a trend here with finding value on teams with QB issues. Head coach Dan Quinn, who built the Seattle Seahawks’ defense before taking this job, obviously still has a lot of work to do with the defense, but that’s why we’re getting such a great price. with trips to Baltimore, New England, Los Angeles, Miami, Seattle and Cincinnati, while garnering the Jets, Arizona and New England at home. Best future bets, season win total bets, teams to bet on and against — it’s all here in Chalk’s 2016 pro football betting guide. If you don’t mind giving up the insurance of a push on 7, there are some books that have over 7.5 at plus-money, and even if they don’t live up to my lofty expectations, I don’t think they’ll be worse than a .500 team and get at least the 8 wins needed to cash this bet.

If only the Las Vegas oddsmakers would buy into the promises of Bills coach Rex Ryan. We saw how they looked in their 5-0 start last season, when Matt Ryan and Julio Jones looked unstoppable and Devonta Freeman emerged as a scoring machine — and they were the only team to beat Carolina in the regular season. They jumped to 6-0 record before their bye week, outscoring the opposition 164-101. In addition, they were minus-15 in turnovers and nine of their 11 losses were within eight points as seemingly nothing went right. They added defensive leader Eric Weddle to their defensive backfield, and were able to add the No.

Buffalo Bills under 8 (-150)

Baltimore Ravens (15-1 to win AFC)

Arizona’s brilliant head coach Bruce Arians continues to preach it’s all about getting that ring on your finger, and his team is as well-rounded as any to deliver the title this season. Tony Romo got hurt again and the Cowboys’ odds were raised, but there is hope, as he’s projected to miss six to 10 weeks, and rookie Dak Prescott stepped up in the preseason. Unfortunately, they’ve lost the services of difference-maker Marcell Dareus for the first four games. The first 10 games will test the mettle of Ryan & Co. In addition, their top draft choice, Shaq Lawson, might be back from injury in November and second-rounder Reggie Ragland is already done for the season. Importantly, the huge emergence of running back David Johnson is the catalyst to take the pressure off the deep passing game. The Bears and Lions continue to erode, while the Vikings obviously lose some luster with the loss of quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. Yes, this is a tall win projection, but the Packers are a heavy hitter and the schedule is as soft as a pillow.

Offensively, the Cardinals continue to be sound at all levels. Yes, the schedule lightens up after that, but Ryan might have one foot out the door.

Tuley: Teams I love (to bet on) Tuley: Teams I love (to fade) Tuley’s totals: Best over/under teams

After Super Bowl 50, I made the Falcons my best value bet for Super Bowl LI at 40-1. After Philadelphia traded away Sam Bradford, this number has been raised to 8.5, and I believe that’s an over-adjustment — so I now like the under 8.5 (and ESPN’s Football Power Index and our Money Line Estimate agree as they’re still right around 8 wins). Forever the extreme eternal optimist, Ryan’s Bills generally failed to deliver last season, especially on the defensive side of the football. Basically, it comes down to believing we’re much more likely to see 6 wins (and a winning ticket) as opposed to 8.

Atlanta Falcons over 7 (-130)

Led by Aaron Rodgers, the Packers loomed especially large the first six weeks of last season. They eventually placed 20 players on injured reserve, including eight projected starters — Suggs, Joe Flacco, Justin Forsett and Steve Smith included. The schedule is tough and front-weighted. I don’t believe the Jets can catch the Patriots, but for this bet they just need to finish over .500 again.

I originally had a lean on the Chiefs under 9 back in the spring, so I really like it now that it has been bet up to 9.5 (and 120 to boot!). So, I actually think now that the value is on the over 8, especially at the current 150 price. A potential Super Bowl game was promising last season before their collapse in Carolina to end the year after an impeccable 13-3 regular season. Nelson is back this season, while the signing of Jared Cook gives Rodgers another weapon.

Denver Broncos (25-1)

After Super Bowl 50, the Houston Texans were my choice for best value play out of the AFC at 40-1. Secondly, and ultimately the biggest hurdle, is they have to win three playoff games in a row (four if they don’t get a first-round bye), and head coach Marvin Lewis is 0-7 in the playoffs and 0-4 with Andy Dalton as the starting QB. The market hasn’t agreed, as the Falcons drifted all the way up to 100-1 before dipping back to 80-1 over Labor Day weekend. Look for the Ravens to return to their physical ways with a chance to match any AFC contender. 6 overall draft choice, left tackle Ronnie Stanley. Peyton Manning is gone, of course, but if Trevor Siemian can run the offense — which relied more on the running game last year anyway — the defense can carry this team far.

Erin Rynning

Note: I still like the Houston Texans over 8.5 (-120), but not as much as I did when I got over 8 over the summer (though it still takes 9 wins to cash), so that’s why it didn’t make my list of top “over” bets. Their offensive line, receivers and quarterback certainly rank in the upper echelon of the NFL. They did lose defensive tackle Kyle Williams early in the season, but a defensive mastermind like Ryan should be capable of working around a key injury.

Over

New York Giants Chicago Bears New Orleans Saints Arizona Cardinals Pittsburgh Steelers Jacksonville Jaguars

Under

The Giants’ over/under was at 8 with added juice most of the summer, and it was a pass for me. However, after ranking 12th in points per game and sixth in yards per play, expect the league to adjust and regression to occur. The loss of Tyrann Mathieu was devastating for this group late last season, as he works himself to 100 percent by this season’s end.

New York Giants under 8.5 (-120)

You have to believe that Sam Bradford puts them back on track, and you have to not worry about not pulling the trigger when you could have had 30-1 when Shaun Hill was expected to be the starter.

Minnesota Vikings (20-1)

The question lingers as to whether Rex and his brother Rob Ryan turn this defense around. They’ll most likely catch the Cowboys without Tony Romo. They’re still the best value bet on the board in my opinion. Besides, the encouraging number is the 12 games that the Bengals are expected to be favored in this year. Importantly, the key injured cogs from last year are back. Note the Cardinals struggled in both their red zone offense and defense last season, as this team is far too talented for those trends not to turn around. Of course, there are two big obstacles for the Bengals: First, they really need to hold off the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North and secure a first-round bye. Dave Tuley

Atlanta Falcons (80-1)

The Bills did thrive on the offensive side last season, as offensive coordinator Greg Roman did an incredible job with quarterback Tyrod Taylor & Co. Importantly, the Cardinals can move forward from last year. ESPN’s Football Power Index has this total pushing with exactly 7 wins, but I like that the Saints are only projected to be favored in six games at CG Technology, plus the Money Line Estimate only adds up to 6.4 wins. Ryan is known for his defensive prowess, but the Bills dropped from fourth in yards allowed in 2014 to 19th in 2015

Negative Effects of Gambling

Card games, coin tossing, and dice-based games are some non-casino based forms of gambling. To add to the so-called merry atmosphere, gamblers often smoke or drink while playing.

? People who fall prey to gambling tend to remain away from their families and waste money on other bad practices. Rehabilitating the gambling addicts needs money and time, and the process is not very easy. Because of this, they land in worse situations and take the wrong decisions in life.

? Similar to how an individual keeps consuming substances like drugs or alcohol to experience an altered mental state, he continues to gamble. According to the National Research Council, 10 to 17% of the children of problem gamblers have been abused and so have 25 to 50% of the partners of problems gamblers.

Initially, one looks at gambling as a way to run away from life’s problems, or from stress, anger, and loneliness. It soon becomes a habit that can’t be broken.

? Gambling is practiced as a means of recreation. ? Over time, the practice of gambling starts becoming a habit and begins to have damaging effects at psychological, physical, and social levels. Their debt keeps building and it may reach an amount that exceeds their capacity to repay.

Games offered in casinos, table games like poker, Red Dog, and Blackjack, as also electronic games like Slot Machine and Video Poker are some of the common types of gambling. It only leads to a thoughtless expenditure of money and valuables.

? Gamblers often exhibit mood swings and a strangely secretive behavior. A recreational activity is supposed to be refreshing and relaxing, but something like gambling is contrary to the very purpose of recreation. The addiction leads people to continue with gambling irrespective of whether they earn or lose in the deal. When they lose the money they had risked, they further gamble to recover the lost amount and it becomes a vicious circle even they can’t escape from.

? Gambling can lead to criminal activities. Over time, it becomes a habit, and eventually an obsession that can’t be overcome. Addiction to gambling, coupled with substance abuse can make the gamblers physically abusive towards their family. Sports betting and arbitrage betting are the other types. Some take to substance abuse to supplement the high they get from winning huge sums while gambling. The greed never ends and they keep betting more and more. The two go hand in hand. The addiction gets on to the gamblers to such an extent that they fail to think wisely before acting. The addiction has negative effects on one’s physical and mental health and it proves to be detrimental to one’s social, personal, and professional life. They tend to stay away from their near ones, resulting in distrust between them and their loved ones.. It causes a decline in his/her work performance, thus hampering his career.

? Additionally, rehabilitation and public assistance systems are taxed.

? The addiction to gambling can leave one in bankruptcy. The National Council of Problem Gambling (NCPG) describes this type of gambling behavior as problem gambling.

? Children of parents who are problem gamblers or gambling addicts tend to feel abandoned and angry, further increasing stress and leading to strained family relations.

? The costs of treating compulsive gamblers are huge. Six to eight million people in America are estimated to have a gambling problem.

? Gambling has proven to be addictive. In spite of the losses incurred, they continue betting. The stress of risking huge amounts of money or the frustration after losing it can increase the tendency of abuse in gamblers. A study by the same university suggested that 73% of the individuals who are imprisoned are found to be problem gamblers.

? According to a research by NCPG, 76 percent of problem gamblers are likely to have a major depressive disorder.

? An Austrian study said that around 1 in 5 suicidal patients had a gambling problem.

? Research has shown that gambling can lead to harmful behavior in people. Forget satisfaction or peace, it is not even refreshing in the real sense. The decision to gamble money is based on three parameters namely; how much to bet, the predictability of the event, and the conditions agreed upon, between the gamblers. The skill of a gambler lies in weighing the three parameters and making a decision about what amount should be staked and how much should be expected in return.

? Gambling at the cost of one’s job results in a decline in the quality of his professional life. Betting is a mentally taxing activity, and as one goes on risking more and more money, anxiety starts building.

? As gambling leads to increased criminal activities, in a way, gamblers add to the burden on prisons and the legal system.

? Addiction to gambling has been linked with substance abuse. Thus, gambling practices cause a huge financial burden on the families of the affected and on the society at large.

? They start borrowing money and take secret loans. Some go that way to forget the sorrow of losing big sums when gambling.

Gambling = Thoughtless Expenditure + Waste of Time

? The stress from gambling may lead to health issues like ulcers, stomach problems, muscle pains, headaches, and problems with sleep.

? According to the University of New York, in people with alcohol use disorders, the chances of developing an addiction to gambling are 23 times higher.

You could be at gunpoint or holding the gun. They engage in gambling activities at the cost of their time with family and friends. Their mental state can even lead to suicidal tendencies.

Mental and physical health problems, financial issues, and conflicts in the family are among the common negative effects of gambling. The addiction robs a gambler of all the productive time and leads to loss of efficiency at work. This proves to be detrimental to their social and family life. On giving a serious consideration to the negative effects of gambling, we realize that it is best avoided.

? Apart from absence at work and drop in efficiency, a common observation is that gamblers tend to steal money and engage in fraudulent behavior to recover from financial losses incurred when gambling, or to get more money to bet.

? Substances of abuse are served at casinos and in pubs and clubs, thus increasing the likelihood of gamblers consuming them. Due to lost mental peace, they may ill-treat their spouse and children. In the following sections of this Buzzle article, we discuss the negative effects of gambling on the individual and society.

? According to a study by the George State University, 50% of the problem gamblers commit crime. The effect is similar to that of having a drug or a drink, which is why gambling changes one’s mental state and mood.

? People continue gambling with the greed of winning money. It can drag you into crime, gambling isn’t fun.

? A majority of those addicted to gambling have substance abuse disorders.

Gambling refers to the betting of money on an event with an uncertain outcome, with the intent of winning additional wealth. Thus, gambling can have a grave economic impact which is difficult to reverse.

? Studies show that children with a sibling or parent addicted to gambling, are more likely to take to substance abuse.

Compulsive gambling leads to bankruptcy

? Problem gamblers and addicts tend to abuse their family members

Don’t Be a Square: 10 Tips for Betting on Football

Shop For Numbers – “Another important aspect of betting on football is shopping for the best number,” Moseman explains.

Michael Konik, a sports writer and best-selling author of The Smart Money (Simon & Schuster 2006), explains why it is so hard for the recreational gambler to win at betting on football. Avoid Chasing Bets – “Don’t do it! There is no worse way to mismanage your bankroll than to chase your bets after a losing day,” cautions Moseman on the dangerous practice of trying to immediately win back your losses. The only locks that exist are those that need keys to open them.”

And where does all that money go?

Newspapers and popular sports sites routinely publish the lines or point spreads for games, and football insiders offer their picks to viewers each week on ESPN and other cable networks. But, when you’re struggling, that’s when you want to reduce your bet size until you get out of your slump. To be a successful sports bettor you need to operate with a clear mind.”

“Most people with an understanding of football gambling bet between 3 percent and 5 percent of their bankroll, increasing when they win and reducing when they lose,” Vaccaro says. “As for me, the best bet in football is betting the point spread or over/under totals on individual games.

“A sharp or smart has a plan of what he wants to do,” says Vaccaro, the director of sports operations and public relations at Lucky’s Race and Sports Book in Las Vegas. Thanks to the juice, the only one who profits in this scenario is the bookmaker.

6.

Betting on football games; whether it’s through a local bookie, an offshore Internet site or a Nevada casino (still the only legal place in America to make football bets), most of us have done it or know of someone who has. “When you’re in a good rhythm and winning, you want to increase your bets. “Thus, the bookies love and cherish the squares.”

“In an average season, fewer than one bettor in twelve turns a profit,” Gordon says. He loses year after year, according to Dan Gordon, a top football handicapper and author of How to Beat the Sports Books (Cardoza Publishing 2005). “There will be more discrepancy in the numbers at different sports books.

5. If you want advice about sports betting, find someone who has a successful track record. Focus on Conferences – “The best way to win money betting football is to develop a niche and follow it closely,” Moseman advises. The only touts bettors should consider are the ones who talk about the long haul and realistic winning percentages, which are in the upper 50 percent to lower 60 percent range.”

Although exact figures are impossible to calculate, according to Jimmy Vaccaro, widely considered to be Las Vegas’ most influential bookmaker, Americans probably wager more than $50 billion a year on NFL and college football combined.

But even though the math says it’s virtually impossible to win on a consistent basis, Americans continue to bet on football. He is not taken in by being involved in USC-Notre Dame just because it is the biggest watched game of the day. Also, being “in action” can make a dull late-afternoon game (Buffalo vs. Chasing losses is the fastest way to the poor house.”

Even Hollywood is not immune – think Two for the Money with Al Pacino and Matthew McConaughey.

“A square is the average, unsophisticated gambler whose decision making is based on hunches, media manipulation, or spurious systems that cannot overcome the bookmaker’s inherent mathematical advantage,” Konik explains. Giving 11 to 10 odds is almost always the cheapest price you can give.”

“A square or recreational player might have a vague plan, but after two Corona’s he will definitely run to the window and make a hasty decision on the USC-Notre Dame game because he wants to be involved in the party atmosphere,” Vaccaro says. “Squares usually bet later in the week and they tend to pick the favorites. “Teams play inspired ball at home. Locks Don’t Exist – “Anyone who has watched sports for about a month realizes that the difference between winning and losing, especially against the spread, can be infinitesimally small,” Gordon says. “If you become an expert on a smaller conference like the WAC, you have a good chance to beat the house because sports book operators do not have the time or resources to follow this conference the way you can. “For example, if you have a $1,000 bankroll for the season, you should generally bet no more than $50 a game.”

9. Big underdogs often find ways to cover the spread and they rarely give up toward the end of a game in front of the home crowd.”

8. On college you will be able to find different lines at different sports books. So underdogs tend to be slightly undervalued – except by the sharps.”

And remember, in the immortal words of “Fast” Eddie Felson, “Money won is twice as sweet as money earned.”

4.

But that doesn’t mean you have to bet like a “square” and throw away your hard-earned money.

So, how much should you bet a game?

2. While these tips don’t guarantee you’re going to win, hopefully they can make you a little less square and a little more sharp in your picks this season. “Common wisdom says that over the course of a long football season the average man or woman will pick approximately 50 percent winners. Slim underdogs regularly win outright. Drinking and Gambling Don’t Mix – “There is a reason the casinos in Las Vegas supply you with free drinks while you are gambling,” Moseman says. They use powerful computers that can process millions of bits of data and produce a more accurate point-spread line than the bookmakers.”

1. Research Football Services – “Most sports services realize that most people who sign up with them are insecure,” Gordon warns. “In trying to bamboozle potential customers, many services make claims about having scouts all over the country that give them inside information and promise 70 or even 80 percent winners, as if the bookmakers were the biggest suckers in the world. “If you listen to their advice, you are sure to lose. Consider Underdogs – “In the long-run, it’s easier to win betting on the underdog,” Konik says. If you like an underdog, it is best to get your bet in as late as possible, where there is heavy action from squares on favorites.

“The bookies fear and despise a tiny coterie of professional bettors known as ‘the sharps,’” Konik says.

“The biggest mistake that amateur bettors make is they increase their bets when they are losing,” Sevransky says.

7. Oakland comes to mind) seem like the Super Bowl. Bet at the Right Time – “The sharp bettors tend to bet underdogs, and they tend to bet them early,” Moseman says. These books change their numbers according to the betting patterns of their customers, so it is not entirely uncommon to find two or three point differences in the lines.”

So, how much are we gambling each football season?

Ted Sevransky, a well-known Las Vegas gambler and sports consultant with Sportsmemo.com, agrees.

So, is it possible for the average square to become a little sharper in making football bets this season? According to professionals like Vacarro, Konik and Gordon, amateur bettors have the best chance to win if they demonstrate a little patience and follow the 10 basic tips below.

“The talking heads on TV know nothing about sports betting,” says Sevransky. Not all games work according to this formula, but it is usually a good rule of thumb.”

10. There are almost an infinite number of scenarios that can happen in a single football game. “He is not jaded by teams and does not bet with his heart. If North Texas is his best bet on a Saturday then that is his bet. “The sharps are usually members of a betting syndicate privy to the most up-to-date information on injuries, weather, game plans, and, most important, the real power of the teams involved. Avoid Exotic Bets – “For very skilled handicappers, with a proven track record, there can, at least in theory, be value in betting parlays,” says Gordon on the type of bet that combines two or more individual wagers.

Certainly not back into the pockets of the average bettor.

“The standard bet requires gamblers to lay $11 for every $10 they want to win with the extra $1 or 10 percent known as the juice,” Konik says. “In the NFL, a game will often be totally turned around by one or two plays, or even a single penalty. Money Management – “This is without a doubt the most important aspect of betting on sports and possibly the most neglected,” says Morey “Doc” Moseman, a professional gambler and sports consultant with DocSports.com for nearly 40 years. The NFL, for example, will have very similar numbers at most of the betting shops you visit. If you are going to go with a favorite, it is best to place your bet early in the week when the sharps are laying heavy money on the points. There is a wealth of information on the Internet; it is just up to you to find it and research it daily.”

However, Konik adds that there are some bettors who actually know how to beat the bookies. “Most people prefer to bet on the ‘better’ team, the one that will probably win the game. In fact, sports bettors must pick 52.4 percent winners just to break even.”

3. “Over the course of several seasons, the percentage of bettors who turn a profit is minuscule.”

Another difference between squares and sharps is how they approach betting on game day.

Also, it’s probably a good idea to disregard advice from the myriad of ex-players and football experts you see on television each week. And why not? We have unconditional love for the sport and betting $50 or $100 on a game adds an extra rush of adrenaline. The payout is just the same as far as he is concerned. “The key to proper money management is to be sure not to bet more than you can afford to lose.” .

Moseman agrees and especially likes home underdogs. “Because alcohol clouds your judgment and usually helps you to make rash decisions you usually wouldn’t otherwise make. Otherwise, you’re better off doing your own research.”

“There is probably no better bet in sports than playing an underdog at home,” Moseman says