Keep in mind that NCAAB was the most liquid sport in terms of top-five sportbooks however, with not a single sportsbook making the top five both years. However, instead of the line rising as you might expect, it instead drops to Chargers -6. Note that these records are for sides only and do not include totals.
The NFL sports betting is generally considered the toughest sport to beat, yet blindly following this method produced an exceptional 59.2 percent win rate last season, improving the two year record to 328-249-12, 56.8 percent, +59.06 units. Keep a close eye on Canbet here, as that Australian sportsbook cracked the top five both years.
College Basketball sports betting was not too shabby either, with a two-year mark of 492-356-22, 58.0 percent, +91.96 units. Last year was a good RLM season for NFL sports betting (45-29, 60.8 percent, +11.91), but two sportsbooks that were in the top five in NFL RLM in both seasons.
Thus, following reverse line movements is the same thing a following the smart money. RLM takes place when more money/ sportsbook picks are bet by the small percentage of bettors that are on the unpopular side (the sharps) than is bet by the huge majority of players betting the popular side (the squares).
The proper way to make a sports bet using reverse line movement is to place your bet as soon as there is an RLM of one full point (or 10 cents in MLB and NHL) off of the opening line. Keep an eyes on the top five sportsbooks at Sports Insights though, as NCAAF sports betting has been very liquid in that regard, with only one sportsbook (believe it or not, Bodog) finishing in the top five both years.. Quite a few RLM followers watch the moves until almost game time, and then bet accordingly. Carib ruled the roost season at 93-66-9, 58.5 percent, +18.55 units after ABC held the penthouse spot in the 2007-08 season.
So what we recommend is to only use the top five each season for each individual sport (in terms of units won). Furthermore, they list the RLM records for many individual sportsbook, making it easy to spot which books this system is working at and which books it may be best to ignore.
By: Manny G
Now do the sharps win every single time? Absolutely not! However, they are right more often than they are wrong, so being on the same side as the sharps is a prudent strategy over the long run, and again, the best thing is that there in absolutely no conventional sports handicapping necessary..
So what exactly is reverse line movement? RLM takes place when a large majority of bets are on one team, yet the line moves in the opposite direction. This would make Miami +6 the RLM play.
So what causes RLM when the aim of most sportsbooks is to get as close to balanced action on both sides as possible? The answer to this is quite simple: the sharp bettors; the one’s who give sports betting advice. Sure, using this approach leaves open the possibility of the line turning around and moving back against you, but as you will see in bit, betting as soon as an RLM qualifies has been profitable in every major North American sport such as the last two seasons, so if one line turns around, so be it. To illustrate, let us say that San Diego Chargers open at -7 over the Miami Dolohins, and over 70 percent of the sports bets placed on the game are on San Diego. The records quoted below are based on the bets being made at the triggering books, so beating the move by a half-point or a few cents now and then would actually make your record even better.
The highest two-year winning percentage using RLM from the top five books belongs to College Football, which went 480-341-10, 58.5 percent, +95.10 units. Another important recommendation is to use a slow moving (but reliable) sportsbook. It should be noted that many fewer MLB games have qualified so far this season (is the whole world using RLM now?), but smaller profits is still profit.Again, these records are for Money Lines only and do not include totals.Finally, NHL sports betting has picked up 148.49 units in two years, and unlike MLB, NHL had four sportsbooks out of the top five gain double-digit units this past season. The huge problem with this is that the nfl line, ncaaf line or nhl line may have moved too much by that time, and all of the value has been sucked out of the unpopular side.
To back this up, our friends over at Prosportsonline.net have tracked the records for games where over 60 percent of the public has been on one side, yet there was reverse line movement of at least one full point from the opening number at the top sportsbooks in NFL, NCAAF, NBA and NCAAB. Also, games where over 60 percent of the public are on one side, yet there is reverse line movement of at least 10 cents on the Money Line from the opening number at the top five sportsbooks in MLB and NHL sports betting has also been profitable. This may enable you to get the stale more favorable sports betting line at the time the reverse line movement hits at the triggering Sportsbook. We tracked the top five books for each of the pointspread sports for the last two years, as as you can see, this strategy has been profitable in every sport. This is where an important word of caution is in order though. All of this will be fun to follow (not to mention profitable) when every sport except baseball are going on simultaneously during the winter months.
NBA sports betting has the lowest two-year five-book RLM winning percentage among the 11/10 sports, but then again, every gambler in the world would kill to go 382-301-9, 55.9 percent, +48.90 units, and the 57.5 percent win rate this past season is nothing to sneeze at
In proper Ryan-like fashion, the Bills also led the NFL in penalties last year. Note that this offense actually led the league last year in three-and-outs at 28 percent.
Vital when handicapping over/under season wins is the schedule, and the Packers’ slate is relatively smooth sailing. And finally, their road schedule is void of high-caliber competition in Jacksonville, Atlanta, Tennessee, Washington, Philadelphia and their division rivals. The Jets were 10-6 last year and had the No. The FPI at 9.3 and MLE at 9.4 slightly agree, though it is a little concerning that they’re only clear underdogs in just four games (how they fare in the four pick ‘em games will tell the tale). The better play now is Cincinnati at 20-1, as the Bengals have one of the best all-around teams with a balanced offense and a solid bend-but-don’t-break defense.
AFC betting previews | NFC | Super Bowl bets
New York Jets over 8 ( 150) . I still like them, but the “value” part isn’t quite there anymore at 14-1. Well, the oddsmakers obviously felt all along that he would return to the fold as the odds didn’t budge. However, we’ve clearly seen the high end of this Packers team over the previous two seasons as an offensive machine and a capable defense. The Cardinals are poised and motivated for the NFL title.
Kansas City Chiefs under 9.5 ( 120)
Green Bay Packers over 10.5 (-170)
Cincinnati Bengals over 9.5 (EVEN)
Opening week last year, the Ravens lost defensive force and team leader? Terrell Suggs — and quite simply, it was all downhill from there. Note that with the top AFC teams expected down compared to the Cardinals, Packers, Panthers and Seahawks, the key is to bet the Ravens to win their conference.
Again, we don’t need the Bengals to erase their playoff demons to cash this bet. ESPN Chalk’s NFL Vegas experts, Dave Tuley and Erin Rynning, combine to bring you the ultimate betting guide for 2016. The W/L/T that we used in our betting previews for each team and used CG Technology’s Week 1-16 lines to see how many times a team is expected to be favored has the Giants favored in only 8 games, so they would almost have to win all of those (plus any upsets) to get over 8.5.
New Orleans Saints under 7 (-140)
Arizona Cardinals (8-1)
It’s not often you get 25-1 on the defending champions. They don’t need to win them all to get over the total and, even if they don’t win them all, I give them a decent shot to win some of the rare games where they’ll be underdogs or pick ‘em.
Dallas Cowboys (25-1)
Cincinnati Bengals (20-1)
The season is finally upon us. They’ve fortified their defensive line with the additions of Chandler Jones and top draft choice Robert Nkemdiche to aid in the all-important NFL pressuring of the quarterback. However, this team peaked early, and eventually the preseason loss of wide receiver Jordy Nelson reared its ugly head along with subpar offensive line play. However, it’s easy to flush last season down the drain and move forward with this rock-solid organization.
I had a lean on the Jets under 8 back in April, but that was when Ryan Fitzpatrick was holding out, and I expected the number to go higher if he signed. 4 defense with Fitzpatrick leading an already-balanced offense that adds running back Matt Forte. If Prescott can keep Dallas in contention and Romo returns healthy, the 25-1 price could be an overlay — as long as Romo can stay healthy the rest of the way, which is asking a lot.
If I like the Falcons to go to the playoffs (and especially to make a Super Bowl run), then I must love the over 7 at -130. They just need to keep doing what they’re doing in the regular season, and I don’t see too much of a falloff from the team that finished 12-4 a year ago. Before last season, Harbaugh owned a 72-38 regular-season NFL record as head coach, plus 10-5 in the postseason. And while defenses can still win championships, like we saw last year with Denver, it’s not a necessity in today’s NFL.
Under the leadership of John Harbaugh and Ozzie Newsome, the Ravens have been a threat every season to reach the Super Bowl. Obviously we can’t have the Chiefs going on another 10-game winning streak, but that was a bit of a fluke, and no one’s going to be looking past them this year.
After the schedules came out in April, I made the Saints’ under 6.5 ( 115) one of my best bets, so I like under 7 even better, though the juice is heavy at -140. But the talent is there to take a flier.
Other potential future-book plays
Yes, there’s a trend here with finding value on teams with QB issues. Head coach Dan Quinn, who built the Seattle Seahawks’ defense before taking this job, obviously still has a lot of work to do with the defense, but that’s why we’re getting such a great price. with trips to Baltimore, New England, Los Angeles, Miami, Seattle and Cincinnati, while garnering the Jets, Arizona and New England at home. Best future bets, season win total bets, teams to bet on and against — it’s all here in Chalk’s 2016 pro football betting guide. If you don’t mind giving up the insurance of a push on 7, there are some books that have over 7.5 at plus-money, and even if they don’t live up to my lofty expectations, I don’t think they’ll be worse than a .500 team and get at least the 8 wins needed to cash this bet.
If only the Las Vegas oddsmakers would buy into the promises of Bills coach Rex Ryan. We saw how they looked in their 5-0 start last season, when Matt Ryan and Julio Jones looked unstoppable and Devonta Freeman emerged as a scoring machine — and they were the only team to beat Carolina in the regular season. They jumped to 6-0 record before their bye week, outscoring the opposition 164-101. In addition, they were minus-15 in turnovers and nine of their 11 losses were within eight points as seemingly nothing went right. They added defensive leader Eric Weddle to their defensive backfield, and were able to add the No.
Buffalo Bills under 8 (-150)
Baltimore Ravens (15-1 to win AFC)
Arizona’s brilliant head coach Bruce Arians continues to preach it’s all about getting that ring on your finger, and his team is as well-rounded as any to deliver the title this season. Tony Romo got hurt again and the Cowboys’ odds were raised, but there is hope, as he’s projected to miss six to 10 weeks, and rookie Dak Prescott stepped up in the preseason. Unfortunately, they’ve lost the services of difference-maker Marcell Dareus for the first four games. The first 10 games will test the mettle of Ryan & Co. In addition, their top draft choice, Shaq Lawson, might be back from injury in November and second-rounder Reggie Ragland is already done for the season. Importantly, the huge emergence of running back David Johnson is the catalyst to take the pressure off the deep passing game. The Bears and Lions continue to erode, while the Vikings obviously lose some luster with the loss of quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. Yes, this is a tall win projection, but the Packers are a heavy hitter and the schedule is as soft as a pillow.
Offensively, the Cardinals continue to be sound at all levels. Yes, the schedule lightens up after that, but Ryan might have one foot out the door.
Tuley: Teams I love (to bet on) Tuley: Teams I love (to fade) Tuley’s totals: Best over/under teams
After Super Bowl 50, I made the Falcons my best value bet for Super Bowl LI at 40-1. After Philadelphia traded away Sam Bradford, this number has been raised to 8.5, and I believe that’s an over-adjustment — so I now like the under 8.5 (and ESPN’s Football Power Index and our Money Line Estimate agree as they’re still right around 8 wins). Forever the extreme eternal optimist, Ryan’s Bills generally failed to deliver last season, especially on the defensive side of the football. Basically, it comes down to believing we’re much more likely to see 6 wins (and a winning ticket) as opposed to 8.
Atlanta Falcons over 7 (-130)
Led by Aaron Rodgers, the Packers loomed especially large the first six weeks of last season. They eventually placed 20 players on injured reserve, including eight projected starters — Suggs, Joe Flacco, Justin Forsett and Steve Smith included. The schedule is tough and front-weighted. I don’t believe the Jets can catch the Patriots, but for this bet they just need to finish over .500 again.
I originally had a lean on the Chiefs under 9 back in the spring, so I really like it now that it has been bet up to 9.5 (and 120 to boot!). So, I actually think now that the value is on the over 8, especially at the current 150 price. A potential Super Bowl game was promising last season before their collapse in Carolina to end the year after an impeccable 13-3 regular season. Nelson is back this season, while the signing of Jared Cook gives Rodgers another weapon.
Denver Broncos (25-1)
After Super Bowl 50, the Houston Texans were my choice for best value play out of the AFC at 40-1. Secondly, and ultimately the biggest hurdle, is they have to win three playoff games in a row (four if they don’t get a first-round bye), and head coach Marvin Lewis is 0-7 in the playoffs and 0-4 with Andy Dalton as the starting QB. The market hasn’t agreed, as the Falcons drifted all the way up to 100-1 before dipping back to 80-1 over Labor Day weekend. Look for the Ravens to return to their physical ways with a chance to match any AFC contender. 6 overall draft choice, left tackle Ronnie Stanley. Peyton Manning is gone, of course, but if Trevor Siemian can run the offense — which relied more on the running game last year anyway — the defense can carry this team far.
Note: I still like the Houston Texans over 8.5 (-120), but not as much as I did when I got over 8 over the summer (though it still takes 9 wins to cash), so that’s why it didn’t make my list of top “over” bets. Their offensive line, receivers and quarterback certainly rank in the upper echelon of the NFL. They did lose defensive tackle Kyle Williams early in the season, but a defensive mastermind like Ryan should be capable of working around a key injury.
New York Giants Chicago Bears New Orleans Saints Arizona Cardinals Pittsburgh Steelers Jacksonville Jaguars
The Giants’ over/under was at 8 with added juice most of the summer, and it was a pass for me. However, after ranking 12th in points per game and sixth in yards per play, expect the league to adjust and regression to occur. The loss of Tyrann Mathieu was devastating for this group late last season, as he works himself to 100 percent by this season’s end.
New York Giants under 8.5 (-120)
You have to believe that Sam Bradford puts them back on track, and you have to not worry about not pulling the trigger when you could have had 30-1 when Shaun Hill was expected to be the starter.
Minnesota Vikings (20-1)
The question lingers as to whether Rex and his brother Rob Ryan turn this defense around. They’ll most likely catch the Cowboys without Tony Romo. They’re still the best value bet on the board in my opinion. Besides, the encouraging number is the 12 games that the Bengals are expected to be favored in this year. Importantly, the key injured cogs from last year are back. Note the Cardinals struggled in both their red zone offense and defense last season, as this team is far too talented for those trends not to turn around. Of course, there are two big obstacles for the Bengals: First, they really need to hold off the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North and secure a first-round bye. Dave Tuley
Atlanta Falcons (80-1)
The Bills did thrive on the offensive side last season, as offensive coordinator Greg Roman did an incredible job with quarterback Tyrod Taylor & Co. Importantly, the Cardinals can move forward from last year. ESPN’s Football Power Index has this total pushing with exactly 7 wins, but I like that the Saints are only projected to be favored in six games at CG Technology, plus the Money Line Estimate only adds up to 6.4 wins. Ryan is known for his defensive prowess, but the Bills dropped from fourth in yards allowed in 2014 to 19th in 2015
Instead, it rewards teams that do well against good opponents.
For those who wager, it may be helpful to put some science on your side when you wager, and one of the best places to do that is with the Sagarin College Football Ratings.
The first job for La Salle this year will be to score a touchdown, or any points, including a field goal or touchback. Good luck, La Salle, and God speed.
Only Division I (both A and AA) are counted for rating and schedule strength during the season.
7) A total of 242 teams, 119 A schools and 123 AA schools, make up the Sagarin College Football Ratings. 40 by Sagarin.
1) Washington, one of the poor to mediocre teams in the country the last several years, was rated No. The worst-rated A school is Florida International at No. Following its horrendous loss, Michigan ended up being ranked No. The Irish failed to score a touchdown for the first time ever in their home opener.
When you know that more than $700 million can be bet on one game–the Super Bowl–in only Las Vegas, then you understand that billions were bet illegally on the Super Bowl last year in the United States and in offshore sports books around the world.
You will have to forgive the NCAA for taking titles that have been used for years and are perfectly clear, then renaming them and creating confusion in the process.
Ursinus College is not a Division 1 school (which includes the 242 teams with La Salle), not a Division II team (which includes another 157 teams), but a Division III team. 38 following its upset of mighty Michigan 34-32 on Michigan’s home field. 5 by both the AP Poll and Coaches Poll going into the game. 57 after the loss. 242 La Salle Explorers. Both teams are among the 7 worst Division I-A teams in the country, joining Louisiana-Monroe, Rice, Duke, Utah State and Florida International.
Michigan was ranked No. For Sagarin ratings and more detailed information go to: www.usatoday.com
The Sagarin College Football Ratings: What They Are, How to Read Them and What to Do With Them
by: Ed Bagley. 145 after its opening loss) face off in week two. 143 after its opening loss) and Buffalo (ranked No. A hypothetical victory margin is determined by comparing the rating of the two teams after adding 2.93 points to the home team. 2. 36 after steamrolling over UAB 55-18 in its home opener.
6) Temple (ranked No. La Salle is a Catholic university located in Philadelphia.
The BCS (Bowl Championship Series) does not factor in scoring margin. The ratings are updated following each week’s games and published in USA Today on Wednesdays.
Anyway, the Sagarin rating is a numerical measure of a team’s strength.
If there is a way for the NCAA to assert its superior power, it does so by making everything more difficult and confusing, similar to your United States government and its IRS tax code which could reduce a sane person to tears just reading it.
4) Wyoming, a small school and never among the nation’s top teams, was ranked No. The home edge will vary during the season.
3) Appalachian State, a AA school, was rated No. The Explorers next job will be to actually win a game. 31 after hammering Syracuse 42-14 in its home opener.
Following the first week of college football action, here are some facts that interested me about Sagarin’s first-week ratings:
Created by Jeff Sagarin, a 1970 MIT mathematics graduate, these computer ratings are for Division I-A (what the NCAA now calls the Football Bowl (FB) Subdivision) and Division I-AA (what the NCAA now calls the Football Championship (FC) Subdivision) teams.
Folks in the gaming business know that more than a billion dollars is wagered on every Monday Night Football game during the season.
While betting on sports is only legal in a few places in the United States, such as Las Vegas, millions of office workers are involved in sports pools every week now that the football season has arrived.
5) Notre Dame, beaten badly (33-3) by Georgia Tech, was rated No. Now you can better understand why La Salle College is ranked last among 242 Division I schools.
A diminishing-returns principle exists to prevent teams from building up ratings by running up large victory margins against weak teams. The win was the biggest upset in college football history as no AA team had ever beaten a ranked team.
USA Today, the largest circulation newspaper in the United States, is the nation’s daily newspaper and carries the Sagarin College Football Ratings. 41 by Sagarin following its 23-3 home victory over Virginia.
La Salle lost its home opener to Ursinus 28-0. 174 (56 AA teams are rated better), and their play reflects their rating. Georgia Tech was rated No. Ursinus is not a planet but a real liberal arts college in Pennsylvania.
2) Michigan State, another short end of the stick team for far too long, was rated No. The worst-rated AA school is the No
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Card games, coin tossing, and dice-based games are some non-casino based forms of gambling. To add to the so-called merry atmosphere, gamblers often smoke or drink while playing.
? People who fall prey to gambling tend to remain away from their families and waste money on other bad practices. Rehabilitating the gambling addicts needs money and time, and the process is not very easy. Because of this, they land in worse situations and take the wrong decisions in life.
? Similar to how an individual keeps consuming substances like drugs or alcohol to experience an altered mental state, he continues to gamble. According to the National Research Council, 10 to 17% of the children of problem gamblers have been abused and so have 25 to 50% of the partners of problems gamblers.
Initially, one looks at gambling as a way to run away from life’s problems, or from stress, anger, and loneliness. It soon becomes a habit that can’t be broken.
? Gambling is practiced as a means of recreation. ? Over time, the practice of gambling starts becoming a habit and begins to have damaging effects at psychological, physical, and social levels. Their debt keeps building and it may reach an amount that exceeds their capacity to repay.
Games offered in casinos, table games like poker, Red Dog, and Blackjack, as also electronic games like Slot Machine and Video Poker are some of the common types of gambling. It only leads to a thoughtless expenditure of money and valuables.
? Gamblers often exhibit mood swings and a strangely secretive behavior. A recreational activity is supposed to be refreshing and relaxing, but something like gambling is contrary to the very purpose of recreation. The addiction leads people to continue with gambling irrespective of whether they earn or lose in the deal. When they lose the money they had risked, they further gamble to recover the lost amount and it becomes a vicious circle even they can’t escape from.
? Gambling can lead to criminal activities. Over time, it becomes a habit, and eventually an obsession that can’t be overcome. Addiction to gambling, coupled with substance abuse can make the gamblers physically abusive towards their family. Sports betting and arbitrage betting are the other types. Some take to substance abuse to supplement the high they get from winning huge sums while gambling. The greed never ends and they keep betting more and more. The two go hand in hand. The addiction gets on to the gamblers to such an extent that they fail to think wisely before acting. The addiction has negative effects on one’s physical and mental health and it proves to be detrimental to one’s social, personal, and professional life. They tend to stay away from their near ones, resulting in distrust between them and their loved ones.. It causes a decline in his/her work performance, thus hampering his career.
? Additionally, rehabilitation and public assistance systems are taxed.
? The addiction to gambling can leave one in bankruptcy. The National Council of Problem Gambling (NCPG) describes this type of gambling behavior as problem gambling.
? Children of parents who are problem gamblers or gambling addicts tend to feel abandoned and angry, further increasing stress and leading to strained family relations.
? The costs of treating compulsive gamblers are huge. Six to eight million people in America are estimated to have a gambling problem.
? Gambling has proven to be addictive. In spite of the losses incurred, they continue betting. The stress of risking huge amounts of money or the frustration after losing it can increase the tendency of abuse in gamblers. A study by the same university suggested that 73% of the individuals who are imprisoned are found to be problem gamblers.
? According to a research by NCPG, 76 percent of problem gamblers are likely to have a major depressive disorder.
? An Austrian study said that around 1 in 5 suicidal patients had a gambling problem.
? Research has shown that gambling can lead to harmful behavior in people. Forget satisfaction or peace, it is not even refreshing in the real sense. The decision to gamble money is based on three parameters namely; how much to bet, the predictability of the event, and the conditions agreed upon, between the gamblers. The skill of a gambler lies in weighing the three parameters and making a decision about what amount should be staked and how much should be expected in return.
? Gambling at the cost of one’s job results in a decline in the quality of his professional life. Betting is a mentally taxing activity, and as one goes on risking more and more money, anxiety starts building.
? As gambling leads to increased criminal activities, in a way, gamblers add to the burden on prisons and the legal system.
? Addiction to gambling has been linked with substance abuse. Thus, gambling practices cause a huge financial burden on the families of the affected and on the society at large.
? They start borrowing money and take secret loans. Some go that way to forget the sorrow of losing big sums when gambling.
Gambling = Thoughtless Expenditure + Waste of Time
? The stress from gambling may lead to health issues like ulcers, stomach problems, muscle pains, headaches, and problems with sleep.
? According to the University of New York, in people with alcohol use disorders, the chances of developing an addiction to gambling are 23 times higher.
You could be at gunpoint or holding the gun. They engage in gambling activities at the cost of their time with family and friends. Their mental state can even lead to suicidal tendencies.
Mental and physical health problems, financial issues, and conflicts in the family are among the common negative effects of gambling. The addiction robs a gambler of all the productive time and leads to loss of efficiency at work. This proves to be detrimental to their social and family life. On giving a serious consideration to the negative effects of gambling, we realize that it is best avoided.
? Apart from absence at work and drop in efficiency, a common observation is that gamblers tend to steal money and engage in fraudulent behavior to recover from financial losses incurred when gambling, or to get more money to bet.
? Substances of abuse are served at casinos and in pubs and clubs, thus increasing the likelihood of gamblers consuming them. Due to lost mental peace, they may ill-treat their spouse and children. In the following sections of this Buzzle article, we discuss the negative effects of gambling on the individual and society.
? According to a study by the George State University, 50% of the problem gamblers commit crime. The effect is similar to that of having a drug or a drink, which is why gambling changes one’s mental state and mood.
? People continue gambling with the greed of winning money. It can drag you into crime, gambling isn’t fun.
? A majority of those addicted to gambling have substance abuse disorders.
Gambling refers to the betting of money on an event with an uncertain outcome, with the intent of winning additional wealth. Thus, gambling can have a grave economic impact which is difficult to reverse.
? Studies show that children with a sibling or parent addicted to gambling, are more likely to take to substance abuse.
Compulsive gambling leads to bankruptcy
? Problem gamblers and addicts tend to abuse their family members
By comparison, the Big 12 played 10, the ACC and Big Ten played 7 games, the Big East 6, and the Pac 10 only 2.
Knowing that the SEC is legion for scheduling Division 1AA teams in its non-conference schedule, I suspect that the SEC’s strength of schedule (the quality of its opponents) may not be as strong. 2, Stanford No. Even Jeff Sagarin in his Sagarin Ratings lists the SEC as the top conference with a central mean (that is Sagarin math talk) of 79.89 with the Pacific 10–better known as the Pac 10–second at 79.19. 1 among the 242 Division 1A and 1AA schools.
There is so much buzz and hype about the Southeast Conference–better known as the SEC–you would think there are no other NCAA football conferences that can compare.
Another interesting fact of note is this: Since the NCAA established the Division 1A and 1AA separation in 1978, only 5 Division 1A schools have not played a Division 1AA school: Washington, Southern California, UCLA, Michigan State and Notre Dame. 3, California No. The facts and statistics say otherwise.
Sagarin rates all of the 242 individual 1A and 1AA teams and then combines them among conferences to arrive at these figures.. Who plays the tougher schedule between the top two dogs? It is easily the Pac 10.
The “tough” SEC played exactly 10 Division 1AA opponents this season, more than any other conference in the country. On a scale of 100 the difference is 70/100ths of 1, or close enough to not make a difference in my mind.
It is the same reason why Hawaii is unbeaten at 10-0, having defeated two 1AA schools in fattening up its impressive win record while racking up the 153rd toughest schedule against the other 119 Division 1A schools.
Sometimes a 1AA school can beat a 1A school (like Appalachian State beating Michigan at home 34-32), not because they are necessarily better but because the 1A school did not take them seriously.
Ranked 11th among Division 1A conferences is Conference USA at 58.88. Turns out that I am right.
I read other factors into his mathematical formula for deciding which conference is the toughest (best) conference.
The SEC already has 7 of its 12 teams with 7 or more wins and bowl eligible by NCCA standards, and now you know one of the reasons why.
Please, do not give me this garbage about the SEC playing the toughest schedule. 5, so 3 of Top 5 teams in strength of schedule are from the Pac 10.
If you are wondering, the team that has played the toughest schedule during the first 12 weeks of the 2007 college football season is the Washington Huskies, and that is why they are ranked No. Three 1AA conferences are then rated above the last 1A conference–the Sun Belt–at 58.26.
For the record, Nebraska is No. 4 and Colorado No. Again 3 of the 5 teams come from the Pac 10.
When I add up the strength of schedule for the 12 SEC teams I get an average of 30 compared to an average strength of schedule of 14 for the Pac 10
Usually, you will always find a zone-wise distribution of these teams. As such, the total number of NFL teams is 32. Every year, the Super Bowl (the NFL championship game) is what excites football fans the most, with everyone looking forward to spending time together and watching the big game over some delicious food. Each zone has four teams, resulting in 16 teams under the AFC, and 16 under the NFC. Formerly known as the American Professional Football Association, and started in the year 1920, the group soon adapted itself to the National Football League in the year 1922. The AFC and NFC have four zones each-North, South, East, and West. Here however, is something for those of you looking for such a list in alphabetical order.
Green Bay Packers
Kansas City Chiefs
New England Patriots
New Orleans Saints
New York Giants
New York Jets
San Diego Chargers
San Francisco 49ers
St. It is now one of the richest sporting leagues in the world. A very interesting fact is that, over 8 million pounds of guacamole is consumed on Super Bowl Sunday, and the sales of antacids increase drastically the next day! Such is the impact of the NFL, which seems to be only getting bigger with every passing year.. A lot of people plan Super Bowl Sunday way in advance, and ensure that they have no engagements or commitments that day. Also known as Super Bowl Sunday, it is a day on which maximum food is consumed, after Thanksgiving!
There are a total of 32 NFL teams, which have been divided into various zones of the American Football Conference (AFC) and the National Football Conference (NFC). Louis Rams
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
As the biggest sports league that American football has ever seen, the craze about the NFL, its players, and the yearly Super Bowl only gets greater and wider
Shop For Numbers – “Another important aspect of betting on football is shopping for the best number,” Moseman explains.
Michael Konik, a sports writer and best-selling author of The Smart Money (Simon & Schuster 2006), explains why it is so hard for the recreational gambler to win at betting on football. Avoid Chasing Bets – “Don’t do it! There is no worse way to mismanage your bankroll than to chase your bets after a losing day,” cautions Moseman on the dangerous practice of trying to immediately win back your losses. The only locks that exist are those that need keys to open them.”
And where does all that money go?
Newspapers and popular sports sites routinely publish the lines or point spreads for games, and football insiders offer their picks to viewers each week on ESPN and other cable networks. But, when you’re struggling, that’s when you want to reduce your bet size until you get out of your slump. To be a successful sports bettor you need to operate with a clear mind.”
“Most people with an understanding of football gambling bet between 3 percent and 5 percent of their bankroll, increasing when they win and reducing when they lose,” Vaccaro says. “As for me, the best bet in football is betting the point spread or over/under totals on individual games.
“A sharp or smart has a plan of what he wants to do,” says Vaccaro, the director of sports operations and public relations at Lucky’s Race and Sports Book in Las Vegas. Thanks to the juice, the only one who profits in this scenario is the bookmaker.
Betting on football games; whether it’s through a local bookie, an offshore Internet site or a Nevada casino (still the only legal place in America to make football bets), most of us have done it or know of someone who has. “When you’re in a good rhythm and winning, you want to increase your bets. “Thus, the bookies love and cherish the squares.”
“In an average season, fewer than one bettor in twelve turns a profit,” Gordon says. He loses year after year, according to Dan Gordon, a top football handicapper and author of How to Beat the Sports Books (Cardoza Publishing 2005). “There will be more discrepancy in the numbers at different sports books.
5. If you want advice about sports betting, find someone who has a successful track record. Focus on Conferences – “The best way to win money betting football is to develop a niche and follow it closely,” Moseman advises. The only touts bettors should consider are the ones who talk about the long haul and realistic winning percentages, which are in the upper 50 percent to lower 60 percent range.”
Although exact figures are impossible to calculate, according to Jimmy Vaccaro, widely considered to be Las Vegas’ most influential bookmaker, Americans probably wager more than $50 billion a year on NFL and college football combined.
But even though the math says it’s virtually impossible to win on a consistent basis, Americans continue to bet on football. He is not taken in by being involved in USC-Notre Dame just because it is the biggest watched game of the day. Also, being “in action” can make a dull late-afternoon game (Buffalo vs. Chasing losses is the fastest way to the poor house.”
Even Hollywood is not immune – think Two for the Money with Al Pacino and Matthew McConaughey.
“A square is the average, unsophisticated gambler whose decision making is based on hunches, media manipulation, or spurious systems that cannot overcome the bookmaker’s inherent mathematical advantage,” Konik explains. Giving 11 to 10 odds is almost always the cheapest price you can give.”
“A square or recreational player might have a vague plan, but after two Corona’s he will definitely run to the window and make a hasty decision on the USC-Notre Dame game because he wants to be involved in the party atmosphere,” Vaccaro says. “Squares usually bet later in the week and they tend to pick the favorites. “Teams play inspired ball at home. Locks Don’t Exist – “Anyone who has watched sports for about a month realizes that the difference between winning and losing, especially against the spread, can be infinitesimally small,” Gordon says. “If you become an expert on a smaller conference like the WAC, you have a good chance to beat the house because sports book operators do not have the time or resources to follow this conference the way you can. “For example, if you have a $1,000 bankroll for the season, you should generally bet no more than $50 a game.”
9. Big underdogs often find ways to cover the spread and they rarely give up toward the end of a game in front of the home crowd.”
8. On college you will be able to find different lines at different sports books. So underdogs tend to be slightly undervalued – except by the sharps.”
And remember, in the immortal words of “Fast” Eddie Felson, “Money won is twice as sweet as money earned.”
But that doesn’t mean you have to bet like a “square” and throw away your hard-earned money.
So, how much should you bet a game?
2. While these tips don’t guarantee you’re going to win, hopefully they can make you a little less square and a little more sharp in your picks this season. “Common wisdom says that over the course of a long football season the average man or woman will pick approximately 50 percent winners. Slim underdogs regularly win outright. Drinking and Gambling Don’t Mix – “There is a reason the casinos in Las Vegas supply you with free drinks while you are gambling,” Moseman says. They use powerful computers that can process millions of bits of data and produce a more accurate point-spread line than the bookmakers.”
1. Research Football Services – “Most sports services realize that most people who sign up with them are insecure,” Gordon warns. “In trying to bamboozle potential customers, many services make claims about having scouts all over the country that give them inside information and promise 70 or even 80 percent winners, as if the bookmakers were the biggest suckers in the world. “If you listen to their advice, you are sure to lose. Consider Underdogs – “In the long-run, it’s easier to win betting on the underdog,” Konik says. If you like an underdog, it is best to get your bet in as late as possible, where there is heavy action from squares on favorites.
“The bookies fear and despise a tiny coterie of professional bettors known as ‘the sharps,’” Konik says.
“The biggest mistake that amateur bettors make is they increase their bets when they are losing,” Sevransky says.
7. Oakland comes to mind) seem like the Super Bowl. Bet at the Right Time – “The sharp bettors tend to bet underdogs, and they tend to bet them early,” Moseman says. These books change their numbers according to the betting patterns of their customers, so it is not entirely uncommon to find two or three point differences in the lines.”
So, how much are we gambling each football season?
Ted Sevransky, a well-known Las Vegas gambler and sports consultant with Sportsmemo.com, agrees.
So, is it possible for the average square to become a little sharper in making football bets this season? According to professionals like Vacarro, Konik and Gordon, amateur bettors have the best chance to win if they demonstrate a little patience and follow the 10 basic tips below.
“The talking heads on TV know nothing about sports betting,” says Sevransky. Not all games work according to this formula, but it is usually a good rule of thumb.”
10. There are almost an infinite number of scenarios that can happen in a single football game. “He is not jaded by teams and does not bet with his heart. If North Texas is his best bet on a Saturday then that is his bet. “The sharps are usually members of a betting syndicate privy to the most up-to-date information on injuries, weather, game plans, and, most important, the real power of the teams involved. Avoid Exotic Bets – “For very skilled handicappers, with a proven track record, there can, at least in theory, be value in betting parlays,” says Gordon on the type of bet that combines two or more individual wagers.
Certainly not back into the pockets of the average bettor.
“The standard bet requires gamblers to lay $11 for every $10 they want to win with the extra $1 or 10 percent known as the juice,” Konik says. “In the NFL, a game will often be totally turned around by one or two plays, or even a single penalty. Money Management – “This is without a doubt the most important aspect of betting on sports and possibly the most neglected,” says Morey “Doc” Moseman, a professional gambler and sports consultant with DocSports.com for nearly 40 years. The NFL, for example, will have very similar numbers at most of the betting shops you visit. If you are going to go with a favorite, it is best to place your bet early in the week when the sharps are laying heavy money on the points. There is a wealth of information on the Internet; it is just up to you to find it and research it daily.”
However, Konik adds that there are some bettors who actually know how to beat the bookies. “Most people prefer to bet on the ‘better’ team, the one that will probably win the game. In fact, sports bettors must pick 52.4 percent winners just to break even.”
3. “Over the course of several seasons, the percentage of bettors who turn a profit is minuscule.”
Another difference between squares and sharps is how they approach betting on game day.
Also, it’s probably a good idea to disregard advice from the myriad of ex-players and football experts you see on television each week. And why not? We have unconditional love for the sport and betting $50 or $100 on a game adds an extra rush of adrenaline. The payout is just the same as far as he is concerned. “The key to proper money management is to be sure not to bet more than you can afford to lose.” .
Moseman agrees and especially likes home underdogs. “Because alcohol clouds your judgment and usually helps you to make rash decisions you usually wouldn’t otherwise make. Otherwise, you’re better off doing your own research.”
“There is probably no better bet in sports than playing an underdog at home,” Moseman says
Kalani Sitake brings his alma mater to Rice-Eccles Stadium on Saturday to try to snap BYU’s five-game skid against Utah and his longtime boss, Kyle Whittingham. Joe Camporeale/USA TODAY Sports
Said Sitake: “I know I love Kyle and Kyle loves me, and we’re going to be friends no matter what. Former Utah coach Ron McBride and BYU counterpart LaVell Edwards shared a friendship and a strong mutual respect.
But on the field, it’s possible, and one hopes, we’ll see a more respectful game.
“I’ll never say anything bad about the University of Utah, about the athletic program and especially about the football team, because they were great to me, and I think that’s important for me to share that with everyone.”
“I can say that I have a great relationship with Kalani,” Whittingham said. I’m excited for him and his opportunity at BYU.”
That might be the most anti-bulletin board quote of all time!
And the fact is, Whittingham owned the rivalry with Mendenhall, going 7-3, including a current five-game winning streak. This is going to be one of those things that extends our friendship where we get on the football field and compete and we’ll hug afterwards.”
“I don’t know if that will have a major impact with the fan base,” Whittingham said. The history of the rivalry, frankly, is too extensive to dive into with one column, though our Sam Strong did a nice job here. I could list 20 anecdotes about the rivalry through the years, and there would be at least 50 more that I’d be leaving out.
Enter Sitake, who branched out on his own in 2015 and was the defensive coordinator at Oregon State before BYU snatched him up. Heck, Kyle Whittingham was the WAC’s 1981 Defensive Player of the Year for the Cougars. It’s a fawning that would make the Mutual Admiration Society jealous.
. There are four former BYU football players on the Utah coaching staff: Whittingham, Aaron Roderick, Justin Ena and Fred Whittingham. Ena was a three-time all-conference linebacker. They talk and text frequently … And as Whittingham’s coaching tree continues to grow and players from each school become coaches, the crossover between the two staffs will probably breed more admiration and less acrimony.
Where’s the vitriol? Where’s the bulletin board material? Where’s Seni Fauonuku dropping “D” bombs. And for that reason, friendships among the coaches probably won’t sway those in the stands.
This isn’t entirely uncharted territory. Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham and his BYU counterpart and former protégé, Kalani Sitake, are exchanging pleasantries, not jabs, through the media. Where’s Max Hall dropping “H” bombs? Doesn’t everyone (except in Oregon and New Jersey) pump their own gas now?
Many of them are still good friends. And new Utah receivers coach Guy Holliday coached at BYU from 2013-2015.
BYU has three former Utah assistants on its staff: Sitake, Ilaisa Tuiaki and Steve Kaufusi.
Let’s be clear, neither coach is saying he doesn’t want to win. Many have grown up choosing a side and bitterly defending their colors. though not this week … because …
The fans might not feel the same way. Sitake and Whittingham golf in the offseason. Whittingham never said the two were “best of friends.” Because they weren’t.
Welcome to the Holy Warm-and-fuzzy.
One of college football’s nastiest rivalries (historically), it appears, has smoothed over its edges. “I don’t see that happening.”
Take this season, for example. “I’ve coached underneath him, and he’s always been there for me. I think they’ll play a much cleaner game.”
Love! Hugs! Best of friends! Way to mix it up, fellas.
“He’s a guy I respect,” Scalley said. He put an exclamation point on it at last season’s Las Vegas Bowl, when the Utes won 35-28 to send Mendenhall to his new job at Virginia with yet another loss to the Utes (how’s that new gig working out, by the way?).
“This is one of those weeks where we want to respect their preparation,” Sitake said.
In a Q&A with ESPN in February, Utah defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley praised Sitake, noting that he thought the rivalry had “gotten a little bit nasty” of late.
Now, about basketball …
One thing is for sure: The Holy War is beginning a new chapter. While Whittingham and former BYU coach Bronco Mendenhall were never outwardly disrespectful, they weren’t going out of their way to be complimentary to each other, either. And if he can win by five touchdowns, all the better. It looks as though we might be in for a softer, gentler Holy War. “It’s about respect. “It’s a lot of fun, and it’s exciting, and a lot of good people involved with both fan bases.
“To me, that’s what football is about,” Sitake said. … There are still fan bases to appease.
“I don’t see it as a big-time rivalry with hatred as a lot of others see it,” Sitake said
Actor Richard Gere and his estranged “Bond girl” wife Carey Lowell are duking it out in divorce court over his estimated $100 million fortune after resolving their custody dispute over their 15-year-old son, according to the New York Post.
A source told The Post Gere and Lowell, who have been married for 12 years, agreed to settle the custody portion of their divorce while ago, but the source declined to comment on the details of the deal.
Lowell, 54, who filed the divorce proceeding last year, declined to comment after the parties met behind closed-doors with the judge and their attorneys for about 30 minutes.
Before meeting with the judge Gere and Lowell shared a friendly chat while reading separate copies of The New York Times. Lowell suggested a piece about suicide on an Indian reservation in South Dakota.
This article originally appeared in the New York Post.
“The Buddhist actor craves privacy, and Lowell likes socializing with other bigwigs,” according to a source.
Unlike last time Gere came to Manhattan Supreme court over the split when he angrily poked an umbrella at press photographers, on Friday the devoted Buddhist was very zen.
Gere was so absorbed in his paper that he didn’t hear the judge repeatedly call him into his chambers for a compliance conference.
The “Pretty Woman” star flirted with a reporter in the elevator joking, “You want me to give you a special, intimate interview?”
His attorneys, from the high-powered firm Aronson Mayefsky & Sloan, cut him off with a “no comment.”
The former “Law & Order” actress then left the building using the famous front steps that are featured on the legal television series.
“Parties on anonymous,” Justice Matthew Cooper said, using the official case name after it was sealed to try and hide the celebrities’ identity, before Lowell summoned her ex with a commanding, “Richard.”
The Post’s Page Six has reported that the duo split because he prefers to meditate while she likes to party.
But officers allowed her to snap photos of the elaborate WPA mural in the courthouse’s first-floor rotunda even though photography not allowed in the building.
Gere, 65, smiled and left in a black, chauffeur-driven Lincoln Navigator.